온도-지속시간-빈도 관계를 사용한 남한의 비정상성 극한기온 분석
Analyze non-stationary extreme temperatures in the South Korea using temperature-duration-frequency relationships
- 주제(키워드) 도움말 극한기온 , 비정상성 , GEV 분포 , TDF 관계
- 발행기관 강릉원주대학교 일반대학원
- 지도교수 도움말 강성락
- 발행년도 2024
- 학위수여년월 2024. 8
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 및 전공 도움말 일반대학원 대기환경과학과
- 세부분야 해당없음
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/kangnung/000000011920
- UCI I804:42001-000000011920
- 본문언어 한국어
초록/요약 도움말
본 연구는 1974년부터 2023년까지 대한민국 60개 관측소의 고온 및 저온 시계 열 자료를 분석하여, 정상성 및 비정상성 온도-지속시간-빈도(TDF) 관계를 개 발하고 극한기온의 변화를 분석하였다. 여름철과 겨울철 극한기온 이벤트의 강 도와 공간 분포를 조사하기 위해 시간과 전지구 평균지표기온(GMSAT)를 공변량 으로서 고려하였다. 일반화된 극한값(GEV) 분포에 대해 Akaike information criterion (AIC) 값을 기반으로 최적의 모델을 선택하였고, 이를 통해 100년 재현기간의 재현수준을 계산하였다. 연구 결과는 폭염뿐 아니라 열대야와 한파 에도 대응하는 것이 중요하다는 점을 강조하였다. GMSAT가 +2℃ 상승할 때, 이 틀 지속되는 극한기온 이벤트에서 열대야는 평균 1.63℃, 국지적으로 최대 5.69℃의 강도가 증가했으며, 한파는 평균 3.68℃, 국지적으로 최대 7.83℃의 강도가 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 연구 결과는 비정상성 TDF 관계 구축 의 중요성과 극한기온의 시간 변화에 따른 사전 적응 전략의 필요성을 강조한 다.
more초록/요약 도움말
This study analyzed high and low temperature time series from 60 stations in South Korea from 1974 to 2023 to develop stationary and non-stationary temperature-duration-frequency (TDF) relationships and analyze changes in temperature extremes. Time and global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) were considered as covariates to investigate the intensity and spatial distribution of summer and winter extreme temperature events. The best model was selected based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) value for the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, from which the return level of the 100-year return period was calculated. The findings emphasize the importance of preparing for not only heatwaves, but also tropical nights and cold spells. For a +2℃ increase in GMSAT, tropical nights increased in intensity by 1.63℃ on average and up to 5.69℃ locally in a two-day extreme temperature event, while cold spells increased in intensity by 3.68℃ on average and up to 7.83℃ locally. These findings emphasize the importance of building non-stationary TDF relationships and the need for proactive adaptation strategies to time-varying temperature extremes.
more목차 도움말
1. 서론 ······························································································································· 1
2. 연구 자료 및 방법 ····································································································· 3
2.1. 기온 자료 ··········································································································· 4
2.2. 전지구 평균지표기온 ······················································································· 5
2.3. 온도-지속시간-빈도 관계 ··············································································· 6
2.4. 일반화된 극한값 분포 ····················································································· 8
2.5. 모수 추정 및 모델 유효성 평가 ··································································· 9
3. 결과 ····························································································································· 11
3.1. 추세 검정 ········································································································· 11
3.2. 공변량에 대한 상관계수 분석 ····································································· 12
3.3. 최적의 모델 선택 ··························································································· 14
3.4. 정상성 및 비정상성 TDF 곡선 ····································································· 16
3.5. 극한기온 변화 분석 ······················································································· 18
4. 결론 ····························································································································· 24
참조문헌 ··························································································································· 27
부록 ··································································································································· 32
영문초록 ··························································································································· 39
감사의 글 ··························································································································· 41
