기후변화에 따른 북서태평양 수산자원 종 다양성 진단 및 종 분포 예측 : Diagnosis of marine biodiversity variability and prediction of species distribution in northwestern Pacific due to Climate change
- 주제(키워드) 도움말 Climate change , species distribution , biodiversity , prediction , fisheries
- 발행기관 강릉원주대학교 일반대학원
- 지도교수 도움말 이충일
- 발행년도 2024
- 학위수여년월 2024. 2
- 학위명 박사
- 학과 및 전공 도움말 일반대학원 해양생태환경학과
- 세부분야 해당없음
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/kangnung/000000011747
- UCI I804:42001-000000011747
- 본문언어 한국어
초록/요약 도움말
A long-term habitat shifts in fisheries under climate change have been discussed over the last few decades. However, there is still a limited understanding of how species distribution and biodiversity patterns will change in the northwestern Pacific over time. In this study, 181 species were divided into functional groups from the 1970s to the 2010s and diagnosed the diversity by marine latitude, using the MaxEnt model to predict potential habitats for fisheries resources in 2050 in two climate change scenarios. Nowadays, species diversity has been increasing around the northwestern Pacific. From the 1970s to the early 1990s, species diversity tended to decrease strongly, and from the mid 1990s to the 2010s, species diversity tended to increase. This tendency is similar to the pattern of sea surface temperature. Marine latitudinal diversity is classified three area by low-latitude (< about 27°N), mid-latitude (27°N to 45°N), and high-latitude (> about 45°N) and both pelagics group and demersals group more affected species diversity changes than other functional groups. The Northern limit of 57 species habitats were detected to move northward around the northwestern Pacific and the same trend appeared in the East Sea part of Korea waters. The prediction of habitat shifts were used to observe how future environmental changes would affect communities. In 2050, species richness is expected to decrease at lower latitudes, and increase at higher latitudes except for some part of Yellow Sea and coast of South China Sea. On the whole, most species richness have reduced habitats around the northwestern Pacific. Interesting thing is that habitat distribution change is predicted differently around Korean waters because each sea has different characteristics. A novel discovery is that marine latitudinal diversity is classified in three areas both present and future, probably the physical environment (e.g. current, polar front) is a geographical barrier for the northward migration of some species. Our study provides an informative outlook on the impact of climate change on the distribution and biodiversity of fisheries species around the northwestern Pacific to support the adaptive conservation and management of fisheries habitats.
more목차 도움말
List of Table ⅰ
List of Figure ⅲ
Ⅰ. 서 론 1
Ⅱ. 자료 및 방법 4
1. 연구 영역 4
2. 종 다양성 진단 5
가. 해양생물(어획) 자료 5
나. functional group 분류 8
다. 종 다양성 지수(Specific Diversity Index, SDI) 9
라. 서식지 위도 변화 9
마. 표층 수온 10
3. 종 분포 예측 11
가. 종 분포 모델: Maximum Entropy model(MaxEnt) 11
나. 입력 자료: 종 분포 자료 11
다. 입력 자료: 환경 자료 11
라. 모델 평가 13
마. 종 풍부도 예측 14
Ⅲ. 결 과 15
1. 북서태평양 종 다양성 진단 15
가. 북서태평양 표층 수온 변화 15
나. 종 다양성 시계열 변화 17
다. 종 다양성 시공간적 분포 변화 19
라. 위도별 종 다양성 분포 변화 23
1) 북서태평양 위도별 종 다양성 변화 23
2) 위도별 종 다양성 변화에 영향을 미치는 functional group 25
3) 위도별 functional group 종 다양성 변화 27
4) 북서태평양 종 다양성 변화에 영향을 미치는 수산자원 30
마. 서식지 분포 변화 43
1) 북서태평양에서 functional group별(어종별) 서식지 위도 변화 43
2) 우리나라 주변 해역에서 주요 수산자원 서식지 위도 변화 48
3) 우리나라 주요 수산자원 분포 범위 변화 52
2. 북서태평양 종 분포 예측 60
가. 종 분포에 영향을 미치는 환경 요인 60
나. 북서태평양 종 풍부도 및 서식지 분포 변화 64
다. 우리나라 주요 수산자원 종 풍부도 및 서식지 분포 변화 68
Ⅴ. 고 찰 73
Ⅵ. 결 론 80
Ⅶ. 참고 문헌 82
Ⅷ. Appendix 95
1. Functional group 95
2. Northern limit (●), southern limit (●) and maximum catch (●) shift of main fisheries around northwestern Pacific respectively. 101
3. Northern limit (●), southern limit (●) and maximum catch (●) shift of main fisheries around East Sea respectively. 147
4. Northern limit (●), southern limit (●) and maximum catch (●) shift of main fisheries around Yellow Sea respectively. 185
5. Northern limit (●), southern limit (●) and maximum catch (●) shift of main fisheries around South Sea respectively. 215
6. Expected area change of species distribution according to scenario aroud northwestern Pacific(resolution: 0.5°×0.5°) 247
7. Expected area change of species distribution according to scenario aroud Korean waters(resolution: 0.5°×0.5°) 256
8. Northern limit (N), southern limit (S), maximum catch (C) of functional group species in 2010 compare to 1980 around northwestern Pacific (▲ is rise in limit, ▼ is descend limit, ‘=’ is equal limit) 264
9. Northern limit (N), southern limit (S), maximum catch (C) of functional group species in 2010 compare to 1980 around East Sea (▲ is rise in limit, ▼ is descend limit, ‘=’ is equal limit) 281
10. Northern limit (N), southern limit (S), maximum catch (C) of functional group species in 2010 compare to 1980 around Yellow Sea (▲ is rise in limit, ▼ is descend limit, ‘=’ is equal limit) 298
11. Northern limit (N), southern limit (S), maximum catch (C) of functional group species in 2010 compare to 1980 around South Sea (▲ is rise in limit, ▼ is descend limit, ‘=’ is equal limit) 315
